Pro. Aggarwal said that he has prepared different data for each state based on mathematical analysis. The state of infection is different in every state.
Patients on the stairs of the hospital by putting oxygen masks
– Photo: Amar Ujala
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On April 30, the peak of Corona has arrived in Kanpur. Now it is towards the slope. Conditions will be largely normal by 20 May. One-and-a-half thousand cases coming daily will be reduced to hundreds. This claim has been made by Professor Padmashree Manindra Agarwal of IIT’s Department of Computer Science and Engineering.
He made this claim based on mathematical analysis. Pro. Aggarwal said that he has prepared different data for each state based on mathematical analysis. The state of infection is different in every state. He claims that the analysis is also indicating a decrease in infection in Prayagraj, Varanasi, Lucknow in the coming days.
However, cases will increase very fast in some states. He told that the peak was to come in Kanpur by 28 April but came on 30 April. The difference of one to two days between the analytical report and the actual report is very minor. He said that this analysis is based on the transition conditions of the last year and the spread of the transition in the second wave.
This claim based on analysis
Kanpur – Peak has arrived on 30 April. Corona is expected to be relieved from May 20 onwards.
Lucknow, Prayagraj, Varanasi – Peak has arrived on 28 April. Corona is expected to be relieved after May 20.
Noida – Peak of Corona will arrive from May 8 to 12. After this, it will slowly come down.
Mumbai – Peak has arrived from April 20 to 22. It is slowly coming down. Corona is expected to be relieved around June 1.
Patna – Peak has arrived between 24 and 26 April. It is slowly coming down. Corona is expected to be relieved around June 1.
Chennai – Corona is expected to peak between 25 to 30 May. After this, it will slowly come down.
Kolkata – Peak of Corona is expected around 12 May. After this, it will slowly come down.
Pro. Agrawal has analyzed the spread and immunity of infection on the basis of population in the last year. He said that the analysis has included these facts about the population of the concerned cities, the number of infected patients found in the investigation and how many people are reaching the virus in how many days.
On this basis, he claims that one person was getting infected in three days in March last year. Whereas, in March this year the spread of infection was fast and one person got infected in two days. This was double of what it was in January -21.
One was getting infected in four days in January. The spread of infection in April last month was even faster than in March. In the same month, the infection reached its peak. This happened because even after seeing the fast spreading infection, people did not become conscious and continued to meet each other without fear.